Recently you have not been able to turn on a news program without hearing that according to the National Association of REALTORS, the real estate market is down 28%. Taking this into account I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at exactly what has happened month over month in the Northeast Atlanta Real Estate Market.
First let’s look at the sales totals for June and July of 2010:
|
Area |
June 2010 |
July 2010 |
|
North Fulton County |
277 |
203 |
|
Forsyth County |
261 |
183 |
|
Gwinnett County |
783 |
607 |
|
Totals |
1321 |
993 |
As you can plainly see, closed sales in these areas are down. However it is not by that 28% that the news media is referring to but 24.83%.
Next I decided to look at some fairly broad price parameters to see if there was a particular price point where the downturn was coming from:
|
Area |
Price Point |
June 2010 |
July 2010 |
|
North Fulton County |
0 – 200,000 |
35 |
36 |
|
|
200,000 – 400,000 |
110 |
81 |
|
|
400,000 + |
134 |
90 |
|
Forsyth County |
0 – 200,000 |
61 |
44 |
|
|
200,000 – 400,000 |
139 |
88 |
|
|
400,000 + |
63 |
53 |
|
Gwinnett County |
0 – 200,000 |
539 |
408 |
|
|
200,000 – 400,000 |
203 |
158 |
|
|
400,000 + |
44 |
45 |
What these statistics show is that there was a slowdown of 23.15% in the under $200,000 price point homes, a slowdown of 27.66% on the $200,000 to $400,000 and the least percentage slowdown of 21.99% was in the over $400,000 price point.
How would you interpret these statistics? Is there a lesson hidden here? Let’s look at some facts. The Tax Credit expired in April. At that point buyers had to be under contract by April 30, 2010 and close on the property by June 30, 2010. The closing date has been extended until September 30, 2010, but it only makes sense that there was a big push to get properties closed before the end of June so that First Time Buyers and Move-Up Buyers could take advantage of the Tax Credits available to them. Wouldn’t his push artificially inflate June data while leaving July data suffering by comparison? I think that may well be the case. If we do a comparison of adding June and July 2010 sold numbers together and then comparing those numbers to the same time period from 2009 then we find that there is only an 11.35% decline in sold properties in the Northeast Atlanta Real Estate Market. While this may not be the best news in the world it sure beats the 28% downturn being reported.
What all of this means is that Real Estate is very local. In order to have the most up-to-date information about your specific area requires a REALTOR dedicated to doing the research and staying on top of the market.
Would you like to know the specifics regarding what is happening in your Northeast Atlanta community? Just let me know and I’ll formulate an overview for you.
{ 7 comments… read them below or add one }
Mack we saw a large drop in June to July sales that played out in our late August / September moving numbers. It looks like we may see a bit of an up swing in the number October moves though. It seems that the real estate market is stuck in a down ward spiral with brief up turns due to government interventions (tax credits).
Very nice referencing. If you can I would love one of the Las Vegas area when you have the time.
Sorry Las Vegas MLS Tool but I don’t have access to Vegas MLS Data
Our market is considerably down even of this time last year. Most likely because of the tax incentive no longer being in effect. We also see a significant drop because of the snow and cold whether since nobody wants to move in it. Hopefully it picks up for you guys early in 2011.
Ryan @ Green Bay Condos´s last blog ..Green Bay Condos Map
Thanks for stopping by Ryan. Hopefully your weather will improve and the market will turn around for you. Merry Christmas!
Mack what does your crystal ball say for 2011? Is this the year?
Hi Kent, It looks like we are starting to bounce off the bottom. It will not be a quick recovery but we will begin to see the market improve gradually.